Julian Nagelsmann and the Death of an Epoch
If the past week has taught us anything, it is that football can be very funny at times. Not only in the way in which it is played, but also in the way in which it is managed. Managers are here today and gone tomorrow. One can almost be forgiven for thinking that the infamous Antonio Conte-Thomas Tuchel handshake that occurred after Chelsea and Tottenham drew actually took place this season. Just seven months on from that, and both clubs have different men in charge. Managers move as frequently as players do. It is simply the way in which the game is played. It’s ruthless, its cutthroat, it’s straight to the point. But at what cost? We will ever get to see another Sir Alex Ferguson? Another Arsène Wenger? Another manager, given the reigns and control to truly flourish and create not just another chapter in one of the books of a club’s history, but to have an entire legacy finely detailed in a book of their own in a club’s library. The stuff of legends, one might say. There is Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City. Though those two are a couple decades shy of Ferguson and Wenger’s reigns. Julian Nagelsmann was thought to be in that camp. He can still be in that camp. It just won’t be with Bayern Munich.
Fatal Attraction
Spearheaded by its new age sporting director, Hasan Salihamidžić, and the CEO of Bayern, Oliver Khan, Bayern Munich appointed Nagelsmann as the manager of the Bavarian club in the summer of 2021. Contracted to RB Leipzig at the time, Bayern had to pay €25M, a world-record managerial transfer fee to release him from his contract with Leipzig. He signed a five-year contract with the Bavarian giants, and he got to work, implementing his style of play rooted in the philosophy of Ralf Rangnick’s “gegenpress.” The first season went according to plan having won the DFL-Supercup and the Bundesliga title (Bayern’s tenth in a row). Nagelsmann started off his second season by retaining the Supercup and maintaining a strong run of form in Europe’s top club cup competition, the UEFA Champions League. Bayern maintained a perfect record in the group stage, besting top sides like Barcelona and Inter Milan (away and home) and then handily dismissed PSG with a 3–0 aggregate score line in the Round of 16. Before his dismal, Bayern sat one point off the top spot behind rival Borussia Dortmund and have Manchester City to face in the UCL quarterfinals. Nagelsmann was sacked on March 24th and Tuchel was swiftly appointed in his stead the next morning. Nagelsmann’s record with Bayern is as follows:
· 84 games: 60 W, 14 D, 10 L
· 71%-win percentage
· 1 Bundesliga title
· 2 German Super Cups
· 8/8 wins in the 22/23 UCL
At the time of writing Bayern are the betting favorites to win the Bundesliga and are second favorites to win the UCL. The timing is particularly horrible, but Bayern were convinced that if they didn’t act soon, they would miss out of a proven UCL and league winner in Tuchel. Even if this was the case, so what? Obviously, any club would do anything to better their chances at winning silverware on the season, but given how much money was spent to bring Nagelsmann to Bayern in the first place, all signs pointed to the idea of wanting to build towards a very prominent era in the club’s history. Indeed, most clubs are not handing out five-year contracts to coaches, let alone 33-year-olds, which was Nagelsmann’s age when he signed for Bayern. Most clubs do not pay a €25M transfer fee to a rival for a manager. It couldn’t have all been about Nagelsmann very GQ style of dress. No, Salihamidžić and Kahn acted in such a manner because they believed in Nagelsmann to be the headliner into this newer, younger, hungrier, and rejuvenated version of Bayern. Salihamidžić and Kahn can give all the reasons they want: Nagelsmann’s values shifted, Nagelsmann had lost the older voices in the dressing room, results and performances were no longer up to par, he confused players with his tactics, etc. In the end, Salihamidžić and Kahn lacked the faith to see such a decision through. In the end, they cut and ran back to comfortability by choosing Tuchel. And while they could not see the end of the rainbow that a life with Nagelsmann may have presented, someone else will have an opportunity to do so.
Tactical Trendsetter
Despite his age, Nagelsmann has already amassed so many records within his coaching career. The youngest to be named manager of a Bundesliga side, youngest manager to feature in the UCL, youngest manager to win a UCL match, the list of records goes on. Indeed, he has shown at the highest level that he has a deep and analytical level of understanding of football. Nagelsmann is also quite the tinker man. He isn’t married to a single formation, and he has been known to frequently change formations from game to game, from half to half and if it requires, within a half. He is methodical and observant in that he gives his players the outlines of how to play his style of football no matter the formation.
With Bayern, Nagelsmann primarily lined the team up in a 4–2–3–1, with it sometimes switching to a 3–4–2–1 and sometimes to the jet rocket formation that is the 3–1–3–3. No matter the formation, though it was often these three after abandoning the early season run of a not so fruitful 4–2–2–2, there are key traits that are ever present in a Nagelsmann team. He favors maximum control in the middle by overloading the center (what you will see with two bands of 3s in the 3–1–3–3) and pushing his fullbacks up to add to the attack, but also clamp down on defense quicker (Alphonso Davies was a mainstay of this given his ability to get up quickly and influence the attack but also get back quick enough to put out any defensive fires on the left side). Staying true to his gegenpress roots, Nagelsmann’s teams seek to maintain possession through pressing traps. They play with a highline, and position players in such a way that the opposition are sort of forced to play balls into certain “open” spaces, before two or three players pounce on an opposing receiver of the ball. The opposition will then relinquish possession in such a manner that Nagelsmann’s team is already on their way to having a chance at goal.
Pushed up fullbacks and dynamic wingers are always a great discussion, but personally, what I like about Nagelsmann’s teams are his CBs. Given how high of line they play, the CBs in his teams will more often than not come under pressure and the pressure is even higher when there is only one DM in front of the backline. Coolness under the pressure is a basic fundamental for any footballer and Nagelsmann expects his CBs to display a great range of passing which helps to alleviate the pressure on the backline. Much like the pressing traps that are set up in the middle and front end of the pitch, letting the opposition get sucked in and pulled forward can allow the opposition to be undone by a raking through ball, a ball over the top, or a ball into space from one of the CBs. It is a positional/possession-based style of play, the possession is for purpose, and it is a real treat to watch when done right.
What is amazing about Nagelsmann is that he will adapt his system to the opponent whilst keeping in line with his core philosophy. He is very flexible, never stuck in one mold and therefore an unpredictable and formidable opponent. Lastly, don’t ever expect Nagelsmann to be the kind of manager to let his players “sort it out” for themselves. A true tactician at heart, Nagelsmann will always be tinkering.
Europe’s Most Wanted
As was reported by German newspaper BLID, Bayern will still have to pay Nagelsmann’s salary (estimated to be around €8–9M/year), until he finds a new club. Still on Bayern’s payroll and still reeling from his shock exit from Germany’s top club, Nagelsmann may not be in a rush to get back into the manager’s box. He is heavily favored for managerial vacancies all over Europe. Let’s take a look at serious ones, possible ones, and those ones that could probably only happen in FIFA 23’s career mode but it still fun to explore.
EPL: There are plenty of spots opening up in the Premier League, but none more serious than Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea Football Club. Both clubs would be worthy appointments for Nagelsmann, but they are not without serious drawbacks.
With Spurs there will always be an issue of backing. Spurs have a talented group of individuals, missing needed upgrades in midfield and defense, but Nagelsmann will wonder if he will be properly supported and given the tools he is needs to play his style of football. There is also the issue of Harry Kane. He is one of the world’s best strikers and he is coming to the end of a contract with absolutely no incentive to sign an extension. The chance of an extension gets even lower if Spurs are unable to secure UCL qualification. Strikers do not come easy (or cheap) and Harry Kane is not easily replaceable. Despite this, Spurs would benefit from a manager like Nagelsmann given his style and history with how he has played with seemingly big, but not massive, clubs. He could do a lot with Spurs despite the drawbacks. Probability: Very possible, 8/10
Then there is Chelsea. If Nagelsmann goes there, he will not lack for players whatsoever. However, there is uncertainty in the ownership and their vision for the club. Seven months into a new regime and new owner Todd Bohely and his board have already gone through two managers. This despite their claims that they were not going to be like Chelsea’s previous predecessor, Roman Abramovich, who was known to give his managers a short amount of time to prove their worth. Nagelsmann will want time and reassurance to exact his footballing philosophies. Additionally, he may have to make do with the players already there, because Chelsea have brought in a lot of players and signed them to very long contracts. He will have players, but will they be his kind of players? Will he be given time to get his philosophies across? He comes into the Chelsea job, already on the hot seat and two back-to-back flame outs at two massive clubs like Chelsea and Bayern is not something he will want on his CV. Probability: Very possible, 9/10.
Liverpool is not a serious choice…or is it? It probably isn’t. Despite the rough patch that Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are going through I don’t believe he will be asked to leave his post at the end of the season. He has built a legacy there, and more than likely he will be given a chance to find a way out of darkness that the Reds find themselves in. It would be quite the shock if Klopp left or got sacked, but if he did Nagelsmann would be another great German for Liverpool to have. Probability: Extremely low, 2/10.
La Liga: The future of Carlo Ancelotti is unsure at the moment. Even though his team pulled off a classic remontada to kick Barcelona out of the Copa del Rey and head into another final, Real Madrid have surely lost the league and performances have not been great this season. Talk is always swirling in Madrid and should the Italian really leave for retirement or for the Brazilian national team job in the summer, Nagelsmann’s name has been linked to the club. The only problem is, so have club legends Xabi Alonso, who is making a name for himself with Bayer Leverkusen and Raul who is doing wonders with Real Madrid’s Castilla side. They will undoubtably have a bigger claim to it than Nagelsmann. Real Madrid is a massive job, and it comes with even bigger personalities. If he would be expected to hit the ground running from day one with Chelsea, Nagelsmann will be expected to hit the ground running from pre-season with Madrid. Probability: Low 4.5/10.
Ligue 1: Christophe Galtier has not had an easy time with PSG. That being said, I cannot really think of a time any manager has had an easy time in Paris. Galtier’s seat has been hot since PSG failed to progress in their efforts to capture the UCL trophy. Their lead in the table is slim (they are six points clear ahead of Lens and Marseille) and there never seems to be a moment of peace within the locker room. Perfect place for Nagelsmann to go. Sarcasm aside, if Galtier were to be let go, there would be a vacancy and a manager of Nagelsmann stature would be contacted. It would be a chance to coach a generational talent in Kylian Mbappé and potentially lead a club to historical milestone in a Champions League trophy. These are some great possibilities to consider. However, the egos within PSG’s locker room, difficult board members (who sometimes visit the touchline in the middle of games), and method in which business is conducted leave a whole lot to be desired. It can be (and has been) a real block to success and in this case, I think the cons might outweigh the pros for Nagelsmann. Probability: Low, 3/10.
It may be asking too much to return to a era where managers were given a chance to stay at clubs for long periods of time. There is too much money in the sport. Too much at risk to simply give it time. The way in which the game is now has born a new era where managers are on a never-ending merry-go-round in search of trophies for their ship like pirates for hire before hopping on to the next mission. Nagelsmann’s departure from Bayern was definitely unforeseen and unfortunate in a lot of ways. However, he will find another home. That much is certain.
